Polymarket Whale Bets Big on 50bps Fed Rate Cut Amid Shifting Expectations

A high-volume trader on Polymarket, identified as JustWakingUp, has placed a $15,000 wager predicting a 50 basis point Fed rate cut next week. The position already shows a 3% gain, with potential profits exceeding $226,000 if correct. This contrarian bet comes despite CME's FedWatch Tool pricing in a 91% probability for a standard 25bps reduction.

Market sentiment shifted dramatically following Friday's weak jobs report, with odds of a 50bps cut surging to 10%. BlackRock and Standard Chartered have joined the chorus calling for aggressive easing. Tuesday's record downward revision of 911,000 jobs for the 12 months through March 2025 further fueled dovish expectations.

All eyes now turn to Wednesday's PPI and Thursday's CPI data releases. Softer-than-expected prints could cement the case for bold Fed action, potentially triggering volatility across risk assets including cryptocurrencies.